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Asia’s 2009 Economic Outlook - by www.InvestAsiaPacific.com,
division of
AsiaBIZ
Strategy
It’s
easy to be bearish on Asia, with trade dependence on the US,
disasters, diseases like H1N1, Pakistan 911, etc.
The recent triple whammy of the Lehman Brothers
bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch takeover and AIG rescue has also shaken
Asian markets briefly.
However, consider Asia’s formidable strengths and
attractions.
The 21 member economies of APEC (or Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation) account for more than a third of the world’s
population (2.75 billion people) , about 55% of world GDP (US$19,254
billion) and about 49% of world trade.
Asia’s large populations offer a big market size.
Much is said about market potential not easily translated to
addressable and ‘capturable’ market share high but even after
discounting, Asia’s market remains big. The population has a
relatively high propensity to save, with premium placed on
education, resulting in high savings rate and an increasingly
educated labour force.
A huge number of consumers still possess
effective buyer power in mega cities, especially PMEBs, retirees and
youths.
Asia’s economies still provide a low-cost
resource and manufacturing base, enabling sustainable export led
growth. This externalization is also helped by the development of
small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
In terms of industry structure, there is an
abundance of non-equity FDI like original equipment manufacturers
(OEM) and global outsourcers and subcontractors.
Asia’s infrastructure development is enjoying a
growth phase partly aided by infrastructure financing. This,
together with economic and technical cooperation within APEC
economies, should facilitate distribution and intra-Asia trade,
preparing the region well for the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community.
In soft areas, Asia is benefiting from healthy
knowledge transfer and R & D from expatriates and sounder financial
management.
Unique to Asia is the Asia cultural factor with
premium placed on personal relationship building. Globalizing
Chinese and Indian networks across Asia and the world, expansion in
new markets like Middle East, Russia and Eastern Europe as well as
the preponderance of big Asian MNCs help reduce Asia’s dependency on
the US.
Asia is also undergoing gradual regulatory
reforms. Countries are continually improving market access and ease
of doing business. Sri Lanka’s easier credit, India’s trading
procedures made easier, and competitive investment incentives all
help to build a more self-sustaining and resilient Asia.
With more European, US and other foreign
companies entering Asia or expending their Asia businesses, the
outlook for Asia in 2009 remains healthy even if softened by a
weaker 1H.
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